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When you play for long periods of time and with much larger wagers, those decimal and percentage points add up. To further drive this point home, look what happens when you are betting $20 a hand and over a period of time you take the even money 100 times and also don’t take even money 100 times. If you took even money every time, you would make a nice $2000 over those 100 hands. However, if you never took even money on another 100 hands, you would win that same amount if you won just 66 of those 100 hands. Given that when a dealer shows an ace up there is only about a 31% chance (in a six-deck game) that they will also have a 10, it should be obvious that not taking even money (and especially insurance) is the most profitable strategy in the long run. One exception to the ‘never take insurance or even money’ rules are for card counters and other advantage players. If you are good at keeping count of the decks, the insurance bet can easily be taken advantage of when you know there is a surplus of cards valued at ten remaining in the decks. Without getting into too much about card counting or having to do much actual math, you can roughly calculate whether or not buying insurance is a smart move in a given situation. For instance, if two player hands are showing and neither of them reveals a ten, then that means 16 of the remaining 47 cards are tens. This calculates to be a larger than 1 in 3 chance for the dealer to have blackjack, meaning insurance is a good bet Even still, advantage players can’t just rely on insurance since the dealer only shows an Ace once in about every 13 hands and the bet size is limited to half the original wager.
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